Campbell Tyson Blog

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ASB Quarterly Economic Forecasts

Posted by on in The Economy


With a little help from my friends

  • Economic momentum fading as construction activity peaks and dairy incomes decline - but support is on its way
  • RBNZ has begun reducing the OCR – we expect the OCR to fall to 2.5% by the end of 2015, with room for further cuts
  • NZD also lower, boosting export competiveness for the year ahead

See the attached PDF for more information

Views: 976


Dairy price bottom is nigh

  • Dairy market fundamentals are taking a back seat to very weak market sentiment for now.
  • Accordingly, we expect Fonterra to revise its forecast to circa $4.00/kg this Friday, with risks it goes lower.
  • However, taking a step back (and a deep breath), we expect the dairy price bottom is nigh.


Very weak sentiment continues to drive dairy markets and prices lower. It seems at the moment that no one wants to catch the falling dairy price knife. This dynamic is understandable given that well-stocked buyers can put off buying now, with the possibility that prices will still be low (or lower) at future auctions.

But dairy prices will eventually turn (they always do). With prices very low, buyers may look to grab a bargain while they can. Moreover, global dairy supply is gradually tightening, plus there is the possibility of el niño-caused drought this summer.

For now, however, the risks are down. No more so than this Friday where we now expect Fonterra to revise its 2015/16 forecast to circa $4.00/kg, with risks that it goes lower.

See the attached PDF for more information.

Views: 1108

ASB Economics: Q2 labour market report

Posted by on in The Economy


  • Employment growth was weaker than expected, lifting by only 0.3% over the June quarter.
  • Wage inflation was modest, as expected. But near-zero CPI inflation means real wage growth remains   quite high.
  • These data reinforce our expectation that the RBNZ cuts the OCR at least two more times this year.

Employment growth was weaker than expected, and wage inflation was modest: the LCI measure of wage inflation for all sectors (incl. overtime) only rose 1.6% over the year. In order to achieve its inflation goal, we think the RBNZ needs to ease policy further, and continue to expect the OCR to be cut to 2.5% by October this year. The slack in the labour market and weak wage growth in today’s data reinforces this view.

The labour market situation is far from gloomy though: more people are employed in New Zealand than ever before. There were 7,000 more people employed over the second quarter. Employment is up 3% higher than a year ago, with 69,000 more people employed.

More details are in the attached pdf. 

Views: 1121

Ready to change gears?

Posted by on in Business Growth

Being a business owner can be lonely and like raising children there is no manual that tells you how to succeed. As David Irving, founder of the ICEHOUSE and former CEO of Wattie’s, says

“As a corporate manager I had been lucky enough to attend an eight-week senior executive programme at Stanford University Business School in the USA. But, where was the equivalent for the SME owner-manager?”.

97% of all NZ businesses are SME’s (small to medium sized businesses) and make a significant contribution to the NZ economy. It is for this reason that David founded the ICEHOUSE - the purpose of which is to grow New Zealand SMEs.

We are proud sponsors of St Paul's Collegiate School's Centre of Excellence for Agricultural Science and Business who have their information evening coming up on Tuesday 25th August and it's local. Perfect for prospective parents.

For more info go to our Facebook page 

Views: 990

The new British government's summer Budget includes two significant items affecting non-domiciled residents from April 2017.

Individuals who have been UK-resident for more than 15 of the past 20 years will become liable to UK tax on all overseas assets. Even if you managed to fly the coup, all non-domiciles' UK residential property will be liable to UK inheritance tax whether held directly or indirectly via an offshore structure. So if you have property back in ol' Blighty, it could still be in the net.

Tagged in: Accountants tax
Views: 1165 Continue reading